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Archive for April, 2009

I thought thisNY Times article on General Motorswas interesting….it would appear that the forecast that they initially used to underpin theirĀ  recovery plan has been revamped for the new and improved effort. This shouldn’t be a big surprise for anyone – trying to predict what will happen next in this economy is clearly fool’s play. The fact that the article points to the fact that GM has a history of poorly forecasting the market, even in good times points to the difficulty of getting this stuff right in the first place.

Speaking broadly and not specific to GM, a few forecastly things to consider:

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I wonder how far Stephen Harper managed to get with his free trade agenda at the America’s summit…unfortunately I think he has more work to do at home than abroad since he made the decision to prorogue parliament in December of 2008. The Colombia thing is disappointing – there a number of interesting opportunities to be found and I think it is ultimately bad for Colombia.

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According to http://www.internetworldstats.com/south.htm, internet usage in South America looked something like this at the end of 2008. (For arguments sake, let’s just assume the numbers are correct…)

Population – 389,621,930
Internet users – 128,652,435 approx 33% penetration
Broadband Internet Connections – 12,377,823 approx 3.3% penetration

This compares to North America:

Population – 337,572,949
Internet users – 246,822,936 approx 73% penetration
Broadband Internet Connections – 72,313,133 approx 21% penetration

I would assume that usage patterns are not that different between North and South America – music, video streaming, email usage is likely to be similar. I would also be willing to bet that the infrastructure in place in South America pales in comparison to the fibre to the node/fibre to the curb stuff being deployed across the US and Canada. The net result is that there are likely to be internal bottlenecks versus anything else – I guess it could be possible that demand is not yet high enough to impact QoS on in-country networks.

I suppose the Softlayer peering arrangement helps to ensure the bottleneck between where-ever the content is hosted and where-ever people/companies are surfing from disappears. Still, this only solves part of the problem – a significant infrastructure investment is likely necessary in many (all?) South American countries.

If you consider this from a GDP per capita perspective, I wonder (assume?) if the socio-economic gains in South America would far outstrip those observed in North America should comparative investments be made and you get a lot more for you buck today that you did five to ten years ago when the North American telcos and cablecos were upgrading networks.

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I read this today http://adjix.com/9v97. Just curious about South American bandwidth demands given the significant differences in terms of infrastructure, adoption etc…

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Worth reading…McKinsey pushed this out via Twitter. Well done…

http://perspectives.mvdirona.com/2009/04/21/McKinseySpeculatesThatCloudComputingMayBeMoreExpensiveThanInternalIT.aspx

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The Onion is fantastic…I have thought about this in the past. I think this could actually be done…

http://www.theonion.com/content/video/more_american_workers_outsourcing?utm_source=a-section

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According to McKinsey, in any case…

Thoughts?

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